by Jan Malakhovski, version 0.0.0, created , published
This article is going to use the contents of “Bayesian Reasoning” and “Bayesian Studies” notes extensively. If you want to understand the calculations here, you’ll probably want to work through those articles first. On the other hand, if you only care about the general shape of the arguments here, you can instead ignore all probability computations presented in this article and only refer to those two articles for general concepts, which will be linked in relevant places here, on-demand basis. Though, if you have no idea what any of “prior probability”, “sensitivity and specificity of a test”, “regression to the mean”, “p-value”, and “confidence interval” are, or why Carl Sagan’s principle of “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” is a trivial corollary of Bayes’ theorem, you should probably at least skim those two articles first.
When it becomes ready, the news feed will say so.